Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | BRAD -195 MOST +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -4.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -4.3 (+21.7) | 140.2 (+5.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -3.1 (+22.9) | 137.0 (+9.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -3.2 (+22.8) | 137.0 (+9.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -3.2 (+22.8) | 139.5 (+6.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | BRAD 69 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 62 MOST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | BRAD 64 – 54 MOST |
| Dec 4, 2022 | BRAD 58 – 40 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2022 | MOST 83 – 67 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#109) | 3.9 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#103) | 0.49 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#115) | 0.97 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#66) | 0.523 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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