Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -5.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.1 (+10.9) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.2 (+10.8) | 140.6 (+9.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -5.5 (+10.5) | 141.6 (+8.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -5.9 (+10.1) | 140.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | BRAD 69 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | BRAD 64 – 54 MOST |
| Dec 4, 2022 | BRAD 58 – 40 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#64) | 6.1 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#107) | 0.15 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#90) | 0.35 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#87) | 0.514 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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