Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -150 BRAD +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +18 | 98 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -6.7 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.4 (-23.4) | 126.9 (-28.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.7 (-20.7) | 130.3 (-32.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.3 (-21.3) | 129.4 (-31.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -3.1 (-21.1) | 128.5 (-30.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | BRAD 69 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | BRAD 64 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2022 | MOST 83 – 67 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#101) | 3.2 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#168) | -0.11 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#135) | -0.19 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#220) | 0.509 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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