Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MOST +115 BRAD -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +24 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -3.4 (-20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -3.0 (-21.0) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.9 (-22.1) | 145.0 (+3.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.4 (-21.6) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -2.1 (-21.9) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | BRAD 69 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | BRAD 64 – 54 MOST |
| Dec 4, 2022 | BRAD 58 – 40 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2022 | MOST 83 – 67 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | 8.1 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#134) | 1.25 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#138) | 1.47 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#159) | 0.584 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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