Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Missouri State Bears
62 86
FINAL Conference
Bradley Braves
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BRAD -2.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money MOST +115 / BRAD -150
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual BRAD +24 148 Lost
Massey BRAD -3.4 (-20.6)
Massey Totals 144.4 (+3.6)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 43%
Baseline Plus ML BRAD -2.1 (-21.9) 146.4 (+1.6) 45%
Efficiency Plus ML BRAD -3.0 (-21.0) 145.4 (+2.6) 43%
Baseline Tuned ML BRAD -1.9 (-22.1) 145.0 (+3.0) 44%
Baseline ML BRAD -2.4 (-21.6) 146.0 (+2.0) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 5, 2025 BRAD 6960 MOST
Jan 6, 2024 BRAD 8660 MOST
Feb 16, 2023 BRAD 6454 MOST
Dec 4, 2022 BRAD 5840 MOST
Feb 24, 2022 MOST 8367 BRAD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST BRAD
Overall 17-16 23-12
Conference 8-12 13-7
Home 9-5 14-3
Away 4-10 6-7
Neutral 4-1 3-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.2 74.2
Avg Pts Against 71.3 67.7
Massey 1.4 (#146) 8.1 (#73)
Bradley-Terry 0.46 (#134) 1.25 (#83)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.51 (#138) 1.47 (#91)
RPI 0.512 (#159) 0.584 (#42)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST BRAD
FG% 44.1% 47.9%
3PT% 31.6% 37.3%
REB / G 39.2 34.3
OREB / G 10.1 9.4
AST / TO 1.01 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 55.8%
TOV% 17.3% 18.6%
ORB% 28.8% 29.2%
FT Rate 22.7% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 13.1% 19.0%
DRB% 75.1% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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