Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
San Diego State Aztecs
72 – 61
FINAL Conference
UNLV Rebels
Mountain West Conference · Viejas Arena · January 6, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -9.0 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Under
Money SDSU -400 / UNLV +310
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +11 133 Won
Massey SDSU -14.5 (-3.5) — —
Massey Totals — 144.7 (-11.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 98% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SDSU -11.8 (-0.8) 143.6 (-10.6) 87% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -12.5 (-1.5) 143.0 (-10.0) 87% ✓
Baseline ML SDSU -12.6 (-1.6) 141.4 (-8.4) 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -11.6 (-0.6) 142.4 (-9.4) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV
Jan 24, 2026 SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV
Mar 5, 2025 UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU
Jan 19, 2025 UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU
Mar 14, 2024 SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU UNLV
Overall 26-11 21-13
Conference 11-7 12-6
Home 14-1 12-5
Away 6-8 8-4
Neutral 6-2 1-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.7 71.9
Avg Pts Against 67.4 69.8
Massey 14.2 (#21) 4.0 (#105)
Bradley-Terry 3.13 (#14) 0.02 (#177)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.07 (#13) 0.18 (#164)
RPI 0.671 (#4) 0.503 (#166)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU UNLV
FG% 44.7% 46.7%
3PT% 32.8% 34.4%
REB / G 36.6 31.4
OREB / G 10.2 8.6
AST / TO 1.32 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 52.9%
TOV% 14.9% 14.9%
ORB% 29.0% 25.9%
FT Rate 27.5% 18.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.5% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 18.6%
DRB% 71.8% 65.9%
Opp FT Rate 21.8% 17.6%

Game Analysis

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