Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | SDSU -400 UNLV +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -14.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -11.8 (-0.8) | 143.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -12.5 (-1.5) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -12.6 (-1.6) | 141.4 (-8.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -11.6 (-0.6) | 142.4 (-9.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#21) | 4.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#14) | 0.02 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#13) | 0.18 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#4) | 0.503 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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