He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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80–39 on winners spread MAE 8.2 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Harvard @ Princeton +9.0 144.3 83% 67–74 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +3.5 136.9 63% 75–81 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia State +3.9 141.7 71% 58–65 ✓
Saint Louis @ Richmond +1.0 147.4 56% 66–68 ✓
Niagara @ Rider -0.1 135.1 50% 68–70 ✗
Manhattan @ Marist +5.8 143.7 73% 56–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Monmouth +4.8 131.7 70% 70–65 ✗
Canisius @ Iona +14.4 144.5 88% 65–72 ✓
Northwestern @ Penn State +2.5 129.5 63% 60–67 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Little Rock -7.3 139.4 23% 68–55 ✓
UT Arlington @ South Alabama +8.0 136.2 79% 52–62 ✓
App State @ Arkansas State +1.4 131.2 55% 60–62 ✓
Iowa @ Nebraska -12.1 164.9 14% 88–78 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +0.2 132.7 48% 66–61 ✗
San José State @ San Diego State +17.2 129.7 91% 52–77 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan State -1.4 147.8 45% 65–68 ✗
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +4.6 132.8 69% 62–66 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +3.5 136.3 66% 62–66 ✓
Elon @ Northeastern +2.3 133.9 64% 67–54 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Toledo +15.5 154.8 88% 73–88 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -7.2 144.8 22% 84–72 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island +9.5 129.2 85% 54–70 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +10.8 142.1 86% 56–64 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut -2.9 128.0 35% 65–46 ✓
Maine @ UMBC +11.4 145.4 87% 79–93 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +1.1 139.3 53% 74–69 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +9.2 145.1 82% 93–100 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.4 138.2 55% 69–76 ✓
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky +0.0 149.2 45% 58–72 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +1.8 144.0 57% 81–78 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -6.2 154.1 27% 94–59 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +5.5 137.5 71% 69–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas -0.3 149.1 50% 73–75 ✗
Texas @ West Virginia -1.6 134.7 42% 82–81 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell -6.4 148.9 23% 78–89 ✗
Army @ Holy Cross -2.2 140.3 38% 66–58 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +2.6 143.6 61% 78–58 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ American University -3.1 130.0 35% 55–65 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +5.1 130.7 72% 69–74 ✓
Merrimack @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.6 132.7 52% 72–52 ✗
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart +1.8 146.6 59% 68–80 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +11.7 153.4 87% 77–84 ✓
Hampton @ High Point +7.8 136.3 76% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -4.3 153.4 30% 84–74 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -0.4 152.4 47% 65–71 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +0.2 139.8 50% 70–84 ✓
NJIT @ Hartford +4.4 138.5 68% 62–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +5.3 158.4 69% 66–81 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville State +12.1 139.9 87% 52–69 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State +1.3 135.6 55% 74–73 ✗
Dayton @ La Salle -10.9 135.6 15% 60–62 ✗
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -8.4 147.5 20% 79–53 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +15.5 148.5 90% 67–83 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo +13.0 147.4 87% 60–70 ✓
Fordham @ Davidson +12.5 136.4 88% 45–66 ✓
New Mexico State @ Chicago State -15.1 142.0 13% 59–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Miami +3.1 141.2 62% 71–70 ✗
Clemson @ Boston College -1.2 142.5 45% 70–60 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +2.3 148.2 63% 57–65 ✓
Denver @ Western Illinois +6.4 154.0 74% 83–77 ✗
Seton Hall @ Xavier +3.7 144.3 66% 82–66 ✗
Florida A&M @ Grambling +3.5 134.3 65% 79–73 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +4.2 152.7 69% 64–75 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +1.4 140.3 55% 76–66 ✗
Auburn @ Tennessee +3.4 143.9 65% 62–67 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon State -14.7 145.7 13% 94–55 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +4.6 148.0 70% 67–77 ✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina +2.3 140.9 64% 59–64 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego -2.7 140.6 37% 76–81 ✗
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +4.0 139.0 67% 50–70 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +7.7 128.7 77% 49–56 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte +2.7 145.7 61% 74–69 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona -6.1 144.1 25% 73–49 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State -4.7 157.1 27% 77–87 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +7.7 138.9 80% 54–63 ✓
Wagner @ Bryant -1.4 154.3 45% 70–78 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -3.3 139.3 35% 70–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +17.7 146.5 90% 86–92 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia +4.5 129.8 71% 64–63 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +14.6 138.4 88% 61–62 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +6.8 132.3 75% 60–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +4.3 148.7 67% 66–86 ✓
Samford @ Chattanooga +11.0 147.8 84% 57–70 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware +5.1 147.0 70% 69–62 ✗
Charleston @ Drexel +2.8 150.9 64% 79–80 ✓
Towson @ James Madison -6.2 143.7 25% 95–59 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +6.2 139.7 76% 65–69 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville -7.1 134.7 23% 70–77 ✗
Austin Peay @ Eastern Illinois -7.6 126.1 21% 64–52 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State -5.7 140.2 25% 76–69 ✓
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +6.6 133.6 73% 96–98 ✓
VCU @ Massachusetts -6.3 143.5 23% 77–62 ✓
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis -5.0 122.6 27% 67–41 ✓
Murray State @ Southeast Missouri State -14.0 151.8 14% 70–68 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +0.9 139.6 54% 65–80 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana -2.2 156.6 40% 81–83 ✗
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +7.5 147.9 76% 69–67 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +3.8 143.9 67% 71–73 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -11.8 139.4 16% 78–62 ✓
Portland @ Santa Clara +10.6 154.7 85% 89–102 ✓
Radford @ North Carolina A&T +2.1 133.9 58% 62–53 ✗
Longwood @ Campbell +1.0 134.6 50% 60–55 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +11.1 139.3 85% 56–90 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -14.3 136.9 14% 88–79 ✓
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +7.7 153.3 78% 78–67 ✗
Duke @ Syracuse -5.5 152.6 26% 97–72 ✓
Texas Tech @ TCU -2.9 130.7 34% 66–69 ✗
Wisconsin @ Rutgers -0.9 136.8 45% 66–61 ✓
South Carolina @ Alabama +10.1 154.9 82% 71–90 ✓
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +9.7 143.5 86% 59–63 ✓
Washington State @ Washington -3.1 138.7 37% 70–78 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +11.8 143.0 88% 74–81 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Northern Iowa -2.7 141.8 39% 96–102 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Joseph's -3.8 142.3 32% 54–52 ✓
Tennessee State @ Belmont +15.1 144.7 88% 67–87 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +11.6 137.0 87% 87–84 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +5.0 150.1 68% 79–93 ✓
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +0.1 145.5 51% 72–69 ✗
UAlbany @ Stony Brook +2.7 139.7 64% 50–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.