Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -900 M-OH +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -15.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -14.6 (+0.4) | 154.6 (+6.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -15.5 (-0.5) | 154.8 (+6.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -15.6 (-0.6) | 155.8 (+5.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -16.7 (-1.7) | 156.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | -5.3 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#82) | -1.14 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#94) | -1.40 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#54) | 0.426 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.