Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -475 SAM +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -11.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -10.9 (+2.1) | 144.0 (-17.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -11.0 (+2.0) | 147.8 (-20.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -10.6 (+2.4) | 147.2 (-20.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -11.0 (+2.0) | 143.8 (-16.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 12-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#86) | -1.5 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#64) | 0.74 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#77) | 0.57 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#33) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.