Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -550 ME +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +14 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -14.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -12.7 (+1.3) | 142.2 (+29.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -11.4 (+2.6) | 145.4 (+26.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -10.9 (+3.1) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -11.3 (+2.7) | 143.7 (+28.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 62 ME |
| Jan 8, 2026 | UMBC 69 – 62 ME |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ME 73 – 50 UMBC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ME 87 – 62 UMBC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ME 62 – 56 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 60.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#235) | -15.8 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#238) | -3.13 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#241) | -3.72 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#223) | 0.370 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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