Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | USA -350 UTA +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USA -9.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.7 (+3.3) | 135.4 (-21.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -8.0 (+2.0) | 136.2 (-22.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -8.0 (+2.0) | 136.7 (-22.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -8.0 (+2.0) | 135.9 (-21.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2021 | UTA 89 – 87 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | -3.7 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#137) | -0.41 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#130) | -0.29 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#112) | 0.476 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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