Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +2 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | USA -6.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+45.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.2 (+8.2) | 134.3 (+41.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.8 (+8.8) | 134.4 (+41.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.4 (+8.4) | 135.0 (+41.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.9 (+7.9) | 135.2 (+40.8) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2022 | USA 62 – 52 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#271) | 5.1 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#252) | 1.02 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#240) | 1.16 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#231) | 0.584 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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