Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ND -550 GT +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +34 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ND -10.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -9.9 (+24.1) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -11.1 (+22.9) | 139.3 (+6.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -11.1 (+22.9) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -11.4 (+22.6) | 139.8 (+6.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-10 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#63) | 0.8 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#47) | -0.07 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#52) | 0.16 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#41) | 0.461 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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