Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -1700 NIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -16.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -16.5 (-6.5) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -13.0 (-3.0) | 147.4 (-17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -13.3 (-3.3) | 149.1 (-19.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -12.5 (-2.5) | 147.3 (-17.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-3 | 3-8 |
| Away | 9-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#109) | -9.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#124) | -1.36 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#120) | -1.67 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#78) | 0.440 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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