Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -2000 TNST +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +20 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -17.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -17.0 (+3.0) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -15.1 (+4.9) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -16.2 (+3.8) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -16.0 (+4.0) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2025 | BEL 87 – 79 TNST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | BEL 88 – 61 TNST |
| Dec 19, 2020 | BEL 88 – 63 TNST |
| Dec 9, 2020 | BEL 79 – 64 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#64) | -6.3 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#48) | -1.66 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#61) | -1.94 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#32) | 0.416 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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