Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +900 BEL -1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +27 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -16.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -14.5 (-12.5) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -14.7 (-12.3) | 147.3 (+1.7) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -14.5 (-12.5) | 149.8 (-0.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -14.9 (-12.1) | 147.9 (+1.1) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2025 | BEL 87 – 79 TNST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | BEL 87 – 67 TNST |
| Dec 19, 2020 | BEL 88 – 63 TNST |
| Dec 9, 2020 | BEL 79 – 64 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#311) | 10.9 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#316) | 2.05 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#324) | 2.33 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#344) | 0.592 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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