Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +280 BEL -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +25 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -1.4 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.4 (-23.6) | 143.1 (+7.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.3 (-22.7) | 144.3 (+6.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.9 (-21.1) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2025 | BEL 87 – 79 TNST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | BEL 87 – 67 TNST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | BEL 88 – 61 TNST |
| Dec 9, 2020 | BEL 79 – 64 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 26-4 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 18-2 |
| Home | 4-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 81.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#218) | 2.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#250) | 0.84 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#246) | 0.70 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#200) | 0.506 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 18.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.4% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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