Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | ILST -140 INST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -4.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -2.4 (+17.6) | 149.0 (+3.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.3 (+15.7) | 148.7 (+3.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -3.8 (+16.2) | 150.4 (+1.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.3 (+15.7) | 151.1 (+0.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | -2.4 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#260) | -1.06 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#242) | -1.13 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#283) | 0.448 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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