Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Oregon State Beavers
55 – 94
FINAL Conference
UCLA Bruins
Pac-12 Conference · Gill Coliseum · February 26, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -12.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money ORST +650 / UCLA -1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORST win
Actual UCLA +39 149 Lost
Massey UCLA -17.0 (-22.0) — —
Massey Totals — 144.1 (+4.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 2% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 1% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCLA -13.6 (-25.4) 143.1 (+5.9) 12% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -14.7 (-24.3) 145.7 (+3.3) 13% ✓
Baseline ML UCLA -14.8 (-24.2) 144.6 (+4.4) 13% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -15.5 (-23.5) 145.7 (+3.3) 13% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 13, 2024 UCLA 67 – 57 ORST
Feb 2, 2024 UCLA 71 – 63 ORST
Dec 29, 2023 UCLA 69 – 62 ORST
Feb 10, 2023 UCLA 62 – 47 ORST
Jan 16, 2022 UCLA 81 – 65 ORST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORST UCLA
Overall 3-28 27-8
Conference 1-19 15-5
Home 3-13 14-1
Away 0-12 8-4
Neutral 0-3 5-3
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L18 L1
Avg Pts For 68.3 75.4
Avg Pts Against 78.1 64.5
Massey -2.7 (#220) 17.1 (#13)
Bradley-Terry -1.46 (#294) 2.84 (#16)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.21 (#257) 3.72 (#12)
RPI 0.436 (#299) 0.619 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors ORST UCLA
FG% 44.2% 44.4%
3PT% 31.0% 34.3%
REB / G 31.3 37.6
OREB / G 9.1 11.7
AST / TO 0.98 1.49
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 50.0%
TOV% 18.1% 13.6%
ORB% 26.1% 31.6%
FT Rate 18.4% 20.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.8% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 20.2%
DRB% 66.6% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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