Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | BALL -340 EMU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -5.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -5.4 (+5.6) | 153.7 (-14.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.2 (+6.8) | 152.7 (-13.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -4.1 (+6.9) | 154.1 (-15.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -5.1 (+5.9) | 155.1 (-16.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#263) | -8.3 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#243) | -1.04 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#243) | -1.37 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#279) | 0.440 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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