Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | NCAT -160 RAD +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +9 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -3.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -0.9 (-9.9) | 128.4 (-13.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -2.1 (-11.1) | 133.9 (-18.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -2.5 (-11.5) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -2.1 (-11.1) | 131.6 (-16.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2022 | NCAT 78 – 71 RAD |
| Jan 8, 2022 | NCAT 73 – 72 RAD |
Game Analysis
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