Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PV -150 ALCN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -0.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -2.2 (-5.2) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.1 (-3.1) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.4 (-3.4) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.7 (-2.3) | 143.9 (-2.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#299) | -6.1 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#299) | -1.07 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#285) | -1.37 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#239) | 0.480 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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