Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU -135 ALST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -0.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -1.8 (+13.2) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -0.9 (+14.1) | 139.6 (+5.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -1.0 (+14.0) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -1.2 (+13.8) | 139.9 (+5.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#334) | -9.7 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#317) | -2.48 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#324) | -2.85 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#307) | 0.414 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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