Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +160 L-MD -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -4.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -4.2 (+14.2) | 128.4 (-8.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -3.1 (+13.1) | 130.0 (-10.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -3.1 (+13.1) | 131.4 (-11.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -3.5 (+13.5) | 130.4 (-10.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-16 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#340) | -5.2 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#326) | -1.21 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#325) | -1.46 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#343) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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