Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USD +650 SF -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -12.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -12.1 (-3.9) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -11.8 (-4.2) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -12.3 (-3.7) | 140.1 (-0.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -11.5 (-4.5) | 139.5 (+0.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SF 92 – 79 USD |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SF 84 – 61 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SF 95 – 79 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#223) | 12.6 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#170) | 2.03 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#160) | 2.90 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#185) | 0.587 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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