Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | SOU -800 BCU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +3 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -14.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -9.8 (-12.8) | 134.6 (+36.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -11.6 (-14.6) | 137.0 (+34.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -11.0 (-14.0) | 136.7 (+34.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -10.2 (-13.2) | 137.5 (+33.5) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 8-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | -12.4 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#208) | -2.45 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#219) | -2.99 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#192) | 0.386 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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