Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | COLG -340 NAVY +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -5.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -5.0 (-0.0) | 129.7 (+13.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -5.1 (-0.1) | 130.7 (+12.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -4.7 (+0.3) | 132.4 (+10.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -5.8 (-0.8) | 129.7 (+13.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-10 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 60.8 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#133) | -0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#192) | -0.01 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#181) | 0.10 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#144) | 0.513 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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