Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | SEMO +475 MUR -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -15.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -13.7 (+11.7) | 149.7 (-11.7) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -13.0 (+11.0) | 151.3 (-13.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -14.0 (+12.0) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -12.7 (+10.7) | 149.3 (-11.3) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | MUR 73 – 53 SEMO |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MUR 88 – 74 SEMO |
| Dec 31, 2021 | MUR 106 – 81 SEMO |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MUR 80 – 60 SEMO |
| Feb 2, 2021 | MUR 77 – 60 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 18-0 |
| Home | 8-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#265) | 12.1 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#282) | 3.00 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#281) | 3.44 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#249) | 0.617 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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