Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -14.0 Push |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -16.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -14.4 (-0.4) | 148.7 (+13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -13.9 (+0.1) | 150.8 (+11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -14.8 (-0.8) | 148.9 (+13.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -15.2 (-1.2) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | MUR 73 – 53 SEMO |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MUR 70 – 68 SEMO |
| Dec 31, 2021 | MUR 106 – 81 SEMO |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MUR 80 – 60 SEMO |
| Feb 2, 2021 | MUR 77 – 60 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 8-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 11-1 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#31) | -4.8 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#14) | -1.20 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#16) | -1.45 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#16) | 0.459 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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