Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -1000 SEMO +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -10.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -7.7 (+12.3) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.6 (+11.4) | 135.2 (+4.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -8.8 (+11.2) | 135.6 (+4.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -8.8 (+11.2) | 134.8 (+5.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | MUR 73 – 53 SEMO |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MUR 88 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MUR 70 – 68 SEMO |
| Dec 31, 2021 | MUR 106 – 81 SEMO |
| Feb 2, 2021 | MUR 77 – 60 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#162) | -7.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#241) | -1.80 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#236) | -2.35 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#247) | 0.410 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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