Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +25 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -24.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -18.2 (+6.8) | 152.9 (+34.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -18.1 (+6.9) | 152.2 (+34.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -21.0 (+4.0) | 153.5 (+33.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -20.5 (+4.5) | 153.0 (+34.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | MUR 73 – 53 SEMO |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MUR 88 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MUR 70 – 68 SEMO |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MUR 80 – 60 SEMO |
| Feb 2, 2021 | MUR 77 – 60 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 8-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 11-1 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#36) | -9.5 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#40) | -1.49 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#48) | -2.25 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#15) | 0.426 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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