Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO +320 MUR -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -2.2 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -1.1 (-15.9) | 134.1 (+2.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.2 (-15.8) | 137.2 (-0.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.7 (-16.3) | 138.1 (-1.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -1.6 (-15.4) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | MUR 73 – 53 SEMO |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MUR 88 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MUR 70 – 68 SEMO |
| Dec 31, 2021 | MUR 106 – 81 SEMO |
| Feb 12, 2021 | MUR 80 – 60 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#276) | -1.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#298) | -1.55 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#298) | -1.85 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#303) | 0.400 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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