Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | RID -110 NIA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RID win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RID +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -0.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.9 (+2.9) | 135.2 (+2.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.1 (+2.1) | 135.1 (+2.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.3 (+2.3) | 135.6 (+2.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RID -0.0 (+2.0) | 136.6 (+1.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | RID 67 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | RID 77 – 76 NIA |
| Jan 12, 2025 | RID 68 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | RID 71 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NIA 78 – 74 RID |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RID | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#260) | -1.9 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#264) | -0.43 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#264) | -0.68 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#262) | 0.495 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RID | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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