Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MSU +175 PUR -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.1 (+6.1) | 145.4 (-12.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.4 (+4.4) | 147.8 (-14.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.4 (+4.4) | 149.6 (-16.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.0 (+4.0) | 146.7 (-13.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#31) | 18.1 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#31) | 3.34 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#28) | 4.06 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#40) | 0.624 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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