Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -280 UL +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -3.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -3.5 (+3.5) | 139.3 (-16.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -3.9 (+3.1) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -3.8 (+3.2) | 141.0 (-18.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.6 (+2.4) | 141.3 (-18.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#179) | -1.4 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#167) | -0.30 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#153) | -0.26 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#196) | 0.484 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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