Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CHST +1100 NMSU -2400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -17.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -12.5 (+14.5) | 138.2 (-18.2) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -15.1 (+17.1) | 142.0 (-22.0) | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -15.1 (+17.1) | 141.9 (-21.9) | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -13.6 (+15.6) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 14% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2022 | NMSU 78 – 61 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-15 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#344) | 6.8 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#336) | 2.13 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#339) | 2.20 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#345) | 0.603 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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