Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | NMSU -4500 CHST +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -22.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -16.0 (+1.0) | 139.6 (-0.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -15.2 (+1.8) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -15.5 (+1.5) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -14.9 (+2.1) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2022 | CHST 61 – 59 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 10-3 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#95) | -12.7 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#42) | -1.82 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#62) | -2.43 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#19) | 0.412 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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