Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -160 ACU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -3.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -2.9 (-0.9) | 144.0 (-0.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -3.8 (-1.8) | 143.9 (+0.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -3.8 (-1.8) | 143.3 (+0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -3.2 (-1.2) | 145.5 (-1.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#120) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#116) | 0.39 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#122) | 0.52 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#67) | 0.517 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 28.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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