Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | NCSU +160 UNC -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -4.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.4 (-6.6) | 151.4 (+6.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.3 (-5.7) | 153.4 (+4.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.9 (-6.1) | 154.9 (+3.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.9 (-6.1) | 154.5 (+3.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#128) | 10.1 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#179) | 2.00 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#155) | 2.38 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#213) | 0.594 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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