Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -105 TXST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -0.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -0.6 (-4.4) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -0.2 (-5.2) | 132.7 (-5.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.2 (-4.8) | 134.0 (-7.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.4 (-4.6) | 132.2 (-5.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#186) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#128) | 1.13 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#124) | 1.07 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.555 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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