Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | HOW -250 NCCU +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -5.2 (+4.8) | 147.0 (-3.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -4.6 (+5.4) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -4.3 (+5.7) | 149.8 (-5.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -4.6 (+5.4) | 148.2 (-4.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#227) | -7.1 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#266) | -1.08 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#259) | -1.74 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#268) | 0.474 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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