Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -10000 SJSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +25 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -21.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -20.2 (+4.8) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -17.2 (+7.8) | 129.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -18.9 (+6.1) | 129.8 (-0.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.2 (+6.8) | 131.9 (-2.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | -7.1 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#37) | -0.62 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#36) | -0.78 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#37) | 0.451 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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