Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | UNM -360 AF +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -7.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -6.7 (-2.7) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.2 (-2.2) | 139.7 (-5.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -6.9 (-2.9) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -6.7 (-2.7) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 4-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | -4.9 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#156) | -0.21 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#152) | -0.50 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#168) | 0.462 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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