Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–18 on winners spread MAE 8.1 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Florida @ Cincinnati +11.6 133.6 86% 56–54 ✗
Southern Miss @ Rice +12.1 150.1 87% 72–77 ✓
Florida International @ Old Dominion +5.4 131.9 69% 63–83 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +5.2 147.7 72% 52–69 ✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest +10.3 142.6 84% 77–99 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +4.5 140.1 70% 61–75 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +10.4 149.6 86% 61–71 ✓
VMI @ Western Carolina -3.7 156.5 34% 73–82 ✗
Mercer @ Wofford +7.5 136.5 78% 67–74 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -9.4 139.1 17% 73–71 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +6.5 141.2 75% 77–90 ✓
Arizona @ Colorado -7.6 150.9 19% 63–79 ✗
Kansas @ Baylor +3.5 154.7 64% 70–80 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.3 133.7 58% 97–90 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +8.4 138.2 80% 49–68 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +10.3 160.6 86% 94–98 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston Christian -3.1 145.9 34% 75–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grand Canyon +7.3 132.3 77% 41–67 ✓
Lamar @ Tarleton State +12.2 129.5 87% 49–57 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +16.5 152.3 89% 59–75 ✓
Milwaukee @ UIC +4.2 142.4 68% 58–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +9.5 136.8 82% 55–79 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +5.5 156.7 73% 92–87 ✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -4.9 153.6 27% 86–75 ✓
Omaha @ St. Thomas +7.7 155.0 78% 74–95 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming +10.3 145.4 83% 61–74 ✓
Creighton @ Providence +7.0 142.3 76% 51–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +6.3 129.1 71% 66–81 ✓
Stanford @ California +1.2 130.4 53% 39–53 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +4.3 146.0 67% 75–88 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +15.7 134.3 90% 55–75 ✓
UAB @ UTEP -4.8 142.3 30% 69–66 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -6.4 142.6 26% 73–65 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -5.0 141.6 30% 57–67 ✗
USC @ Oregon +1.4 143.9 54% 70–69 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +1.5 138.0 56% 63–61 ✗
Idaho State @ Portland State +6.9 139.7 75% 69–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -4.0 143.2 30% 75–81 ✗
Boise State @ UNLV +0.4 131.2 53% 86–76 ✗
Colorado State @ Utah State +2.0 146.2 58% 66–55 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +5.2 136.7 73% 72–77 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +7.7 132.5 78% 50–62 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -11.0 146.5 15% 86–77 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard -3.9 143.0 33% 74–73 ✓
SMU @ Houston +11.5 143.5 86% 61–75 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +3.3 144.6 64% 72–67 ✗
Illinois @ Michigan +1.1 144.2 54% 93–85 ✗
Fairfield @ Manhattan +1.3 141.9 57% 66–62 ✗
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +4.1 130.3 68% 36–63 ✓
Monmouth @ Siena -1.8 135.5 41% 59–70 ✗
Iona @ Rider -7.7 140.1 21% 67–61 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +6.7 143.9 76% 57–81 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +9.2 142.3 82% 62–69 ✓
Tulane @ Temple +2.6 142.8 63% 70–75 ✓
Ohio State @ Maryland -3.1 146.9 35% 60–75 ✗
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +2.4 133.3 65% 73–69 ✗
St. John's @ DePaul +0.2 153.2 51% 94–99 ✓
Montana State @ Montana -1.9 143.4 42% 74–80 ✗
Indiana @ Minnesota -1.2 134.7 45% 84–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.