Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -13.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -10.7 (+1.7) | 147.4 (+15.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.0 (+2.0) | 146.5 (+16.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.4 (+2.4) | 146.9 (+16.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.7 (+1.7) | 147.5 (+15.5) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 0-19 | 13-6 |
| Home | 6-11 | 14-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L21 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | 15.6 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#222) | 2.84 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#206) | 3.49 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#261) | 0.597 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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