Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | UCR -120 UCSB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +7 | 187 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -0.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (+58.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -1.3 (-8.3) | 130.9 (+56.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.3 (-8.3) | 133.7 (+53.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.0 (-8.0) | 135.4 (+51.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.6 (-7.6) | 133.3 (+53.7) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 8-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#165) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#153) | -0.49 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#180) | -0.32 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.455 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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