Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -3.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -1.8 (+0.8) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -3.9 (+2.9) | 143.0 (+4.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -4.8 (+3.8) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -3.7 (+2.7) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HARV 58 – 56 PRIN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HARV 87 – 80 PRIN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PRIN 76 – 71 HARV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PRIN 68 – 64 HARV |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PRIN 66 – 53 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 23-7 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 12-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#208) | 3.8 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#223) | 1.03 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#220) | 1.03 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#218) | 0.543 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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