Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -200 CREI +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -4.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.8 (+15.2) | 139.2 (-16.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -7.0 (+14.0) | 142.3 (-19.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.2 (+14.8) | 143.8 (-20.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -6.1 (+14.9) | 139.3 (-16.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 12-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#48) | 8.4 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#3) | 2.35 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#10) | 2.81 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#6) | 0.573 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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