Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | USU -145 CSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +11 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -2.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.5 (-13.5) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.0 (-13.0) | 146.2 (-25.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.7 (-12.7) | 145.3 (-24.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.9 (-12.9) | 144.1 (-23.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#51) | 10.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#88) | 2.83 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#65) | 2.99 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#72) | 0.618 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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