Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +110 STAN -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +14 | 92 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -0.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-35.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -0.4 (+14.4) | 127.9 (-35.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.2 (+12.8) | 130.4 (-38.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -0.9 (+13.1) | 130.5 (-38.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.5 (+12.5) | 129.2 (-37.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | 4.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#158) | 1.42 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#138) | 1.59 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#219) | 0.540 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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