Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.3 (+8.3) | 141.0 (+13.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -1.9 (+7.9) | 143.4 (+10.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.0 (+8.0) | 144.4 (+9.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.0 (+8.0) | 144.0 (+10.0) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#245) | 1.2 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#210) | 0.80 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#209) | 1.00 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#209) | 0.554 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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